Friday, 18 June 2010

Market Pulse: Your source for stock, stock market, stock trades, and stocks info

Market Pulse

The opening range for June has been well established. So far in the month of June, the S&P 500 has penetrated the lows of June 1st and has catapulted above the June 3rd high. It seems for now that the month of June is going to make it hard to determine the direction of market in the short term. The long term is more tricky. It has been clear to me since August of 2009 that the market needed to correct at some point. The real question is: "How big of a correction is it going to be?" The bulls and bears have been grappling with that question. The bulls believe that the market was due for a correction and that the market's decline will be rather constructive in order to set the market up for higher prices. The bears believe the decline is the start of something bigger and that the peak in late April could be "All She Wrote". In my opinion, there is no evidence to give credence to the bull case because it doesn't pay to be complacent in the face of an obvious decline in the market. The bears on the other hand may have something to take note of because the viciousness of the decline in such a short period of time doesn't completely lend itself to the idea that the market is experiencing a normal and constructive correction. I am not completely buying the bearish case, but I am open to the opinion that the market's rally from the March 2009 lows is over. The only opinion that really matters is the markets’ opinion. I think we will have to wait and see further market action to determine what the longer term trend of the market will be.

Monday, 8 March 2010

Weekly Wrap: Your source for stock, stock market, and stocks info

Weekly Wrap

Last week was positive for worldwide markets. The majority of worldwide markets closed up for the week. The FTSE 100 actually made a new closing high since the March 2009 lows. Other indexes like the DJIA, S&P500, NASDAQ, and the Bovespa are not too far away from making new highs as well. The evidence at this stage points to markets moving higher. The markets themselves are not giving off any bearish signals. The sharp plunge that started in January looked as if it may have been the start of something more, but February action completely took that bearish scenario off the table. The only problem is that many of the stocks that are outperforming in this rally are not having long enough consolidation periods (my opinion) to make initial entries with a high degree of confidence. I feel at any point this market could turn down, but a rally that has lasted for 12 months is clearly more than just a bear market rally. Something else is going on here, and I am not quite sure what it is. Can the market really continue going up at the pace it is? Can the stock market completely divorce from the real economy, which are in shambles in all the developed economies? Is all the negativity and pessimism overdone and a new bull market has begun, stealthily? My experience tells me that all markets correct SOONER or LATER, and this market is no different than any other. The highly anticipated employment report came out on Friday. It was better than expected. It’s getting difficult to tell reality from fiction these days. The housing market is not recovering, contrary to what any tv pundit will tell you. Informed individuals were saying that commercial real estate was the next shoe to drop 2 years ago. It seems as though it may be time for commercial real estate to take center stage in the headlines.

Friday, 5 March 2010

Market Pulse: Your source for stock, stock market, stock trades, and stocks info

Market Pulse

The opening range for March has seen three positive days. Yesterday, the market closed up slightly (+4.18 pts). The market is still in a confirmed uptrend from the March 2009 lows. Each and every decline in the market is met with buyers coming in to lift the market higher. Although, at this stage in the advance (we are very close to a full 12 months) it is very interesting to note that it seems that the market continues to rise without the concurrent volume expansion you would see in a sustained bull market. There are some individual stocks that continue to outperform in this current rally (e.g. VPRT, VCI, DBRN, RDWR, and LZ; to name a few). In the market there are always opportunities to profit every single day. Even when the market goes down, there are stocks going up. And when the market is going up, there are stocks going down. Staying vigilant and sharpening your focus on a particular stock and getting to know its character can give you the edge you need to know when to make an investment commitment.

Sunday, 28 February 2010

Market Pulse: Your source for stock, stock market, stock trades, and stocks info

Market Pulse

The market is in a holding pattern right now. February didn’t tell us much about what direction the market may move in. So far, the February low is holding, although the volume on the rally is pretty flat. Last Thursday’s reversal was strong evidence of a bullish case that the market is going to move higher. The high volume at the February low may have been a significant sign that the market has support.

Weekly Wrap: Your source for stock, stock market, and stocks info

Weekly Wrap

The market was pretty much unchanged for the week. There were some sharp moves. The S&P 500 plunged on Tuesday and Thursday mornings only to comeback immediately. That type of action is very strange to say the least. The market is unable to sustain a measurable move downward. It seems every time the market seems it could be starting a decline, a bid comes back underneath the market and it magically comes back at the end of the day. The longer term trend of the market remains up, although we may be in a shorter term correction. Some of the market pundits that I listen to like Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, Bob Prechter, Peter Schiff, etc. have differing views but ultimately they see mistakes being made by authorities, unsustainable markets, and a financial reckoning in the future. To me these things haven’t started to happen yet. We experienced the initial decline in 2008 and we are in the rebound period. Since the March lows, markets worldwide have come well off their lows. Now, it seems like we are hovering but really with nowhere to go. The consumer confidence report was released on Tuesday and it was disappointing. It shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone who has been looking around in their local communities. The economy is not recovering and the below average figure of 46 is reflecting the social mood. A new month is starting for the markets next week. February was essentially a sideways month. I thought that the burgeoning decline that started in January would carry over into February, but the market reversed course and went higher. The opening range for February gave no clues to the direction of the market. The opening range of March may be a little more helpful in determining the next move. We’ll just have to wait and see how the beginning of this week pans out. I don’t have any idea which way the market could go because I can see the market A) going higher, B) start plunging, or C) continue moving up and down with no trend. None of those outcomes would surprise me.

Sunday, 21 February 2010

Economic Statistics & Data: Your source for stock, stock market, economy, economic statistics and data info

ECONOMIC STATISTICS AND DATA


Current Growth rate, U.S. GDP: 5.7%

10-Year Yield: 3.77%

PRIME INTEREST RATE ON LOANS:3.25%

FEDERAL FUNDS RATE: 0.25%

Private-owned housing starts:

591 thousand units (+2.7% vs. Dec '09)

Single-family housing starts:

484 thousand units (+1.5% vs. Dec '09)

TAX RATES:

CORPORATE INCOME TAX RATE: 35%

Indiv. Rate on Ordinary Income: 15% ($8,375-$34,000) 25% ($34,000-$82,400) 28% ($82,400-$171,850) 33% ($171,850-$373,650) 35% ($373,650+)

Indiv. Rate on Capital Gains: 15%

CRUDE OIL PRICE PER BARREL: $79.81 +1.01

DOW JONES STOCK INDEX: 10,402.35 +9.45

S&P 500 STOCK INDEX: 1109.17 +2.42

NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX: 2243.87 +2.16

NYSE COMPOSITE INDEX: 7083.25 +2.87

NATIONAL DEBT: ($12,396) trillion


Saturday, 20 February 2010

Weekly Wrap: Your source for stock, stock market, and stocks info

Weekly Wrap:

Stocks made an impressive move for the week. The S&P 500 finished up 2.85% for the week. I said in previous blog posts that I didn’t expect the market to break above the February 2nd highs. Well, all the major indexes and some of the international benchmarks (e.g. FTSE, Bovespa, Straits, etc.) broke above the high for the month as well. Stocks went up every single day, and are now on a nine-day run upwards from two Fridays ago. The breakout out to the upside clearly signals that the market may have the potential to rise higher and even rally to new highs. Last week was pretty lackluster on the news front except for the FOMC meeting and the Fed’s decision to raise rates. I tend to watch markets (i.e. looking on my screens) rather than read news or keep up with financial events. So when I found out that the Fed had raised by 0.25%, I was surprised that it must have had no effect on the market because I would have noticed it. When I see a big move up or down in the markets, I usually check Bloomberg to see what the news is. And it’s usually Fed minutes, non-farm payrolls, jobless claims, manufacturing data, or consumer sentiment that can cause sharp swings. It was a pretty boring week. I think that most stocks went up in general. If you were overly bearish coming into the week, you probably got killed because stocks moved higher all week. The market never seems to amaze me these days. Can the worldwide markets continue to move higher month after month? We'll see.

Tuesday, 16 February 2010

Market Pulse: Your source for stock, stock market, stock trades, and stocks info

Market Pulse:

The first day of this shortened week has started off bullishly. The S&P 500 rose 19.36 points (+1.80%) which pushed it back into the opening range for February. I said two weeks ago that the February 2nd highs shouldn’t be surpassed if we are going to have a sustained decline in the market. Today’s bounce will put that forecast in jeopardy if the market keeps rallying. One thing about today’s move was the real lack of volume behind it on the upside. It may be something or it may be nothing. Today’s markets aren’t like the market 30 years ago. You can’t completely really trust the volume you are seeing today. We have got program trading, flash trading, dark pools, etc. which cloud what is really happening in the market. So, from what the chart shows, I have to conclude that today’s volume was weak. There were a lot of big moves in individual stocks in the market which is positive. The only thing to do is wait to see if the market can really follow through strongly with the rally. Ideally, you want to see an up day on higher volume to give some support to the rally.

Monday, 15 February 2010

Commerce & Law: your source for into about commerce, commercial law, admiralty/maritime law, statutory law, and natural rights

AMENDMENT I.


Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of

religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging

the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the

people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for

a redress of grievances.

Weekly Wrap: Your source for stock, stock market, and stocks info

Weekly Wrap

As you can see from the weekly chart, this week’s action was pretty choppy. The market closed higher for the week, but barely. It isn’t the type of week you would want to see if you think the February 5th intraday lows are going to hold. The market’s up and down motion for the week have a corrective type of pattern rather than an impulse pattern. I think the February 5th lows will probably be broken and the market is headed for further losses. Using the opening range of the month as a basis, the forecast for a decline in February is still valid. The bottom line is: Don’t go out buying stocks now, because the chances are high that they will move lower. I like buying stocks that are moving down, but I like to make sure they are getting close to making sustainable lows (whether it’s in the short-term or long-term). Right now, I don’t think we are close to a short-term (3-4 weeks) or long-term (1-2 years) low in the market. It seemed that Greece was the big story over the last week. Their debt problems are in full spotlight and everybody is talking about the repercussions if they default. The course that governments have taken around the world should tell us how that situation will be resolved. Greece will be bailed out and their crisis will be forgotten in a year. It was only a year and a few months ago that the US investment banks and money center banks were in the spotlight. Those banks have not fixed any of the problems they had. They have only concealed them. Greece is a symptom of a larger problem within the global economic system. At some point credit expansion becomes a hindrance rather than an engine for growth. The ability to service the debt becomes a problem when a large portion of your outgoings are going to pay off creditors. The consequence of these rescues, bailouts, and irresponsible lending will be felt one way or the other. It will be interesting to see how it turns out. Well, the US has a new stimulus bill being introduced to rejuvenate the economy. The question has to be asked, “How many stimuli do you need to get the economy going?” That raises a second question, “How many stimuli do you need to do before you realize it isn’t working?” Someone should ask the people working in both chambers of the House and the head of the Executive branch of the US. In other news, there are some provisions that are trying to be slipped into the 3rd proposed stimulus bill without anyone asking any question according to this Bloomberg article. So, are people coming out of their shells and starting to spend again? The Advance Retail Sales report for January was positive. It was up 0.5%. The consensus was 0.3%, so it beat the estimates. You can probably get an accurate picture of consumer demand by asking your friends and neighbors if they are shopping. An even better way is to look at your own spending habits. If you are spending less money on shopping than two years ago, you can imagine what everybody else is doing in an economy where unemployment is 9%+. Speaking of the economy, last week the GDP for Europe (i.e. Eurozone) was 0.1%. 0.1% is not growth. It’s standing still. Although, most of the pundits are saying that a global recovery is taking place, I don’t think 0.1% adds much credence to their claims. Despite the recent pull back in the market since mid-January there are still some stocks making new highs from the March lows. I don’t advocate buying stocks hitting new highs. It’s just my preference not to buy at peaks, and to wait for the inevitable pullbacks. Stocks making new highs are certainly candidates for putting on a watch list. Just a few names on that potential watch list are VRX, LCC, UTI, UVV, TSN, SNS, SLE, ROK, RSC, RMD, RBC, PLT, PIR, PBT, NVO, LII, IDT, EMS, DLB, CEL, BRK.A, and ACF. Keep in mind that these stocks are in the middle of big moves, and the meat of it might be gone.

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