If You Are Right At The Wrong Time, You Are WRONG!
"There's a story about one of the very first macro guys that always stuck with me. After sending one of his analysts to Africa to check out the cocoa crop, the analyst came back saying there was no crop so prices should go through the roof. The guy bought some cocoa at 38 cents. It went down to 36 cents and he doubled up. It went down to 34 cents and he doubled up again. It went down to 32 cents and he went broke. A year and a half later, cocoa was trading at $1.50. He was right, but at the wrong time. You can have this gigantic view of the world but you better pay attention to what the markets are telling you." Steven Drobny: Inside the House of Money