Tuesday, 31 March 2009

Nothing Much...

Still, I don't have much to talk about because not that much is happening that I think is important. The mainstream media is focuses everyday on the automakers, bailouts, federal reserve, and whatever else reasons they give for the market going up and down on a daily basis. But it doesn't matter much if you think about it seriously. Price is the only thing that matters. Is the price of that house, stock, gold, or oil barrel going up or down? That's really what matters. All the fundamental reasons or theories are just opinions. I can tell you what those markets are going to do BEFORE the fundamental reason comes out; (well after the fact), explaining the move. How? Because a chart tells you everything you need to know about a market at that moment in time. House prices? Going down so more. Why? Go look at a chart of home median home values and tell me the trend of the chart. Stocks? Near-term up. We have had a big rally, that I don't believe is finished yet. Gold? Going up much higher. Why? It's been going up for the last 8 years. No reason to believe otherwise until the trend changes. Oil? Sideways to up. Catastrophic fall must be retraced. It's that simple. You have to establish your own view of which way the market is going to go, then you figure out how to get on board.

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