Friday, 29 May 2009

Thursday, 28 May 2009

Learn by Analyzing Your Failures

This is a very important aspect to your trading/investing. Going over your mistakes is painful, but you can learn alot about yourself and your system. Here are a couple of excerpts from William O'Neills How To Make Money in Stocks:

"I was so mad that I spent the last six months of 1961 carefully amalyzing every transaction made during the prior year."

"Eventually my problem became clear: I knew how to select the best leading stocks, but I had no plan for when to sell them and take profits. My stocks went up and then down like yo-yos, and my paper profits were wiped out."

"Plot out your mistakes on charts, study them, and write some additional rules in order to correct your mistakes and the actions that cost you money."

How to Make Money in Stocks by William O'Neill

Tuesday, 19 May 2009

Monday, 18 May 2009

World News: Your Source for world news

Bilderberg 2009

Daniel Estulin reporting from this year's Bilderberg conference

Tuesday, 12 May 2009

Real estate...still falling :(

I think the first sentence of this article from Bloomberg says it all: "Home prices in the U.S. dropped the most on record in the first quarter from a year earlier, led by California and Florida, as banks sold foreclosed properties." Is it time to buy a home? A resounding, NO! Credit bubbles end in depression, which means firesale prices for all assets. Much cheaper home values to come. (I'm thinking somewhere around 2012-2013. You might find real bargains then.) Until then, keep your money in your pockets.

Market Pullback

Looks like we might finally be getting the pullback I have been waiting for in this market. A healthy correction is needed to quell some of the positive sentiment that has returned to the market. For a healthy uptrend to persist, you want to see pullbacks. As opposed to having a stock and the market keep going up day after day and then turning parabolic. That scenario always ends badly.

Monday, 11 May 2009

Commentary: Your source for news, commentary, and stock info

A Rise in Optimism

Here's an excerpt from the April issue of Elliot Wave International's Elliot Wave Theorist: [The current rally]", regardless of its extent, should regenerate substantial feelings of optimism. At its peak, the President's popularity will be higher, the government will be taking credit for successfully bailing out the economy, the Fed will appear to have saved the banking system, and investors will be convinced that the bear market is behind us. Be prepared for this environment; it will be hard for most investors to resist. But beware: Wave 3--the steepest portion of the steepest wave--will be the most intense COLLAPSE in stock prices in nearly 300 years. The perverse result of wave 2 will be to get people even more heavily invested than they already are, just before wave 3 starts."

My sentiments are exactly in line with this excerpt. The nature of bear markets is to suck investors back in on every subsequent rally from every decline. So be aware when the mainstream media, the Obama administration, the Fed, and anybody else starts saying the "worst is over" and "we are on the road to recovery".

Quote of the Day

"It takes a man a long time to learn all the lessons of his mistakes. They say there are two sides to everything. But there is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side."
-Jesse Livermore

Friday, 8 May 2009

2009 Sector Change

Utilities have been the weakest performing sector so far this year. I wonder why that is? Also, look at the huge rally we have had so far since the March 6 bottom and only 3 sectors are positive this year? What the graph is really saying is that only 3 sectors have been pulling up the market this year. In my opinion, those are the worst sectors to put your money in. Put your money in companies that make the neccessities of life.

Commentary: Your source for news, commentary, and stock info

Bear Market Rally or New Bull?

In my opinion, this is a bear market rally. However, my opinion may belie the fact that I am currently long stocks until I think the current up move is over. I think peak of this rally is a few months away (probably late July thorough early September). All this talk about "green shoots" and "glimmers of hope" are just that. There isn't going to be a meaningful recovery this year, and sooner or later the market will figure that out. At that point, it will be time to short everything in sight.

U.S. Payrolls

Bloombergs reports that U.S. Loses 539,000 Jobs, Fewer Than Forecast, in Sign Economy Stabilizing . If I am being honest, that number isn't as bad as I was expecting. So, I think this rally has more legs.