Friday, 18 June 2010

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Market Pulse

The opening range for June has been well established. So far in the month of June, the S&P 500 has penetrated the lows of June 1st and has catapulted above the June 3rd high. It seems for now that the month of June is going to make it hard to determine the direction of market in the short term. The long term is more tricky. It has been clear to me since August of 2009 that the market needed to correct at some point. The real question is: "How big of a correction is it going to be?" The bulls and bears have been grappling with that question. The bulls believe that the market was due for a correction and that the market's decline will be rather constructive in order to set the market up for higher prices. The bears believe the decline is the start of something bigger and that the peak in late April could be "All She Wrote". In my opinion, there is no evidence to give credence to the bull case because it doesn't pay to be complacent in the face of an obvious decline in the market. The bears on the other hand may have something to take note of because the viciousness of the decline in such a short period of time doesn't completely lend itself to the idea that the market is experiencing a normal and constructive correction. I am not completely buying the bearish case, but I am open to the opinion that the market's rally from the March 2009 lows is over. The only opinion that really matters is the markets’ opinion. I think we will have to wait and see further market action to determine what the longer term trend of the market will be.